By Stephen Smoot
In 1950, the United Mine Workers of America faced a true dilemma.
Coal served as the foundation of energy and metal production for much of the 20th century, but even as mines continued to produce a problem raised its head. Machines increasingly showed the ability to do work faster and with more efficiency than human labor. Interestingly, this very question of machine versus man served as the catalyst of the John Henry legend.
John Henry’s story, whether legend or real, underscored the problem. The strongest of men could outperform early machines, but John Henry died in the effort. A clear lesson came from this, that the Industrial Revolution meant machines would increasingly replace unskilled, and even some skilled, labor.
In the National Bituminous Coal Wage Agreement of 1950, the UMWA stopped opposing the mechanization of the coal industry. Sticking to human intensive mining meant tens of thousands more jobs, but mostly with pay that matched the skill level. The grand old man of the coal miners’ union helped to bring his movement to the table and agree that the UMWA would no longer oppose mechanized work.
Mechanized mining brought the most pain to areas where it was most labor-intensive before, including mining areas of Southern West Virginia. Lewis, however, accepted the notion that losing even that many jobs, and also the mining companies that operated in the old ways, would ensure the survival of American coal as an industry.
Manufacturing and other industries battled for the same grace from their unions.
Throughout the last half of the 20th century, the refrain continued. Massive industrial and mining complexes requiring thousands of workers needed fewer of them. Pressure also came from tariffs on United States-produced goods going to the markets of nations allied to America.
During the Cold War, policy makers saw that as a way to unofficially subsidize allies so they could spend more on their own defense. In reality, those in Europe especially used the extra funds to build unsustainable social welfare systems that sapped their power considerably.
The World War II generation and after saw the need to channel their children to other endeavors. By the 1970s, most knew that the lifetime of work for the local factory, mine, or mill would not be an option for their young people. After World War II, servicemen and veterans could access the Montgomery GI Bill to pay for higher education. Not long after, a United States Supreme Court decision found aptitude tests for hiring racially discriminatory, which forced a number of companies to turn to requiring different levels of college education for hiring.
As manufacturing and mining jobs diminished, more and more young people left their homes to obtain college educations. A lot of those never returned to their hometowns, or sometimes even their home states, except for holidays and reunions. Schools started to push students harder towards a college track, seeing it as the only path to individual prosperity for a time.
The 21st century sees a dynamic growing that at one is similar and also the opposite.
In the Far East, Japanese companies have contended with pervasive population decline. The country has a low birth rate and almost no support for immigration to fill those roles. With artificial intelligence and machine learning, Japan’s factories require fewer workers. In recent years, however, those in the private, non profit, and government sectors have explored implementing advanced technologies to replace people.
The white collar world has already started to see a number of roles permanently disappear. CNBC reported last October that “across banking, the auto sector, and retail, executives are warning employees and investors that artificial intelligence is taking over jobs.” and that “Ford CEO Jim Farley warned that it ‘will replace literally half of all white collar workers.” The company Salesforce uses artificial intelligence to handle half of its workload now.
This time, when the structural revolution replaces workers the culture will see it differently. Layoffs at, say, a refinery in Gary, Indiana, an automobile plant in Flint, Michigan, or a coal mine in Mingo County, West Virginia may rate on an urbanite’s empathy response, but not much more. The coming shifts in labor will affect the heart of banking, media, government administration, and much, much more.
These people losing their jobs will be at the center, not the periphery, of national attention. It will be tough to predict even in the short term how technology will push humans aside. And one cannot “just say no” to technology advances. They come relentlessly, regardless of one’s wishes.
In any event, parents, educators, and young people have to shift their visions of the future before the storm hits with full force.
First, college-bound students should analyze what they might want to do in terms of where the opportunities will be. In no case whatsoever has any country with any level of economic prosperity been able to offer young people the job or career they want along with the conditions they wish to work under. COVID produced a brief fantasy world where labor held leverage over employer, but no longer.
Neither artificial intelligence nor machine learning will have too much impact on skilled trades work. AI cannot replace a toilet, hang dry wall, or change a transmission. Despite what some cheating lawyers have attempted in court, it also cannot argue a case or even perform basic research well.
In some cases, small towns and the countryside will hang on to human labor and representation longer. In major cities, the customer simply wants the product or service regardless. In rural areas, it still matters who delivers the product or provides the service. The personal touch is expected in the latter area and nearly forgotten in the former.
Additionally, the shortage of trades businesses and workers in rural areas mean almost instant opportunity for those who go into those fields with certifications and a good name. Regional school systems have responded well to this challenge. Trades education is being emphasized for all students. Extracurricular and club activities provide a fun environment for job and personal skills training in a wide variety of fields.
West Virginia’s career and technical schools also provide excellent education and pathways to success in fields that will remain in demand for decades.
One area where AI and machine learning will bring huge dividends is in agriculture. Even older farmers today understand that the farm of tomorrow will be run not by a farmer on a tractor so much as the farm family manning a video game-like command center, operating equipment on the land and in the air to manage and supervise the operation. With fewer farm workers and many young people in farm families resistant to working in some of the labor-intensive old ways, these technologies will help to save family farms.
Machine technology shut down opportunities and drained rural areas of their best and brightest as the 20th century closed. Artificial intelligence will make those formerly appealing employment destinations much less so. That said, when there’s a problem, there is a business or a work opportunity. And the world has never come close to running out of problems.
The future belongs mostly to those who considered it before it got here.
