By Stephen Smoot
Over the past two years, Russia has passed a series of legislative acts to try and reverse the consequences of its history. It began in the 1930s with Joseph Stalin forcing Russians to relocate to non Russian areas of the nation (now independent nations themselves), also involved the Communist Soviet government murdering tens of millions and imprisoning many more, and continues with the Russo-Ukraine War eroding its population of young men and keeping them from the home front.
Russia’s entire identity and sense of security have come from the notion of endless acreage and endless soldiers. It now has the former, but as far as the latter is concerned, Pakistan has tens of millions more in population than Russia. Predictably, Russia has resorted to implied force to dampen movements promoting childless lifestyles while encouraging more births.
Across the West the story remains the same. Many central and European countries entered negative growth rates many years ago. The United States has declined below population replacement as well.
Several issues contribute to the phenomenon of declining birth rates. First and foremost, until very recently in history children were economic assets instead of debits. Societies more dependent on family farms and family-run businesses saw more children as the most efficient way to expand operations. Kids grew up shoveling manure and tossing hay bales or stocking shelves, cleaning up, or helping out in some other fashion.
It was common for families in West Virginia a century, or just a few decades ago, to have 10 or even more children.
Modernization brought a reduced need for children. Over time, machines took over more of the unskilled or less skilled work once performed by children. More families turned to salaried work than running their own farms or businesses. Along the way, the cost of raising a child outstripped the economic benefit each brought to the household.
Therefore, families have had fewer children as time has gone on.
Other social conditions settled in, such as the decline of the traditional family, movements prioritizing work over parenting. Even more significant came the dissipation of the old family and community support systems once relied upon for child care, parental advice, and other aspects of life once available from one’s circle, but increasingly seen now as a government issue.
Population decline usually comes in the garb of negativity. Russia, for example, thinks of its military capabilities first when addressing population problems.
Other nations, such as the United States, have different motivations for promoting population increase. Individual states have incentives to raise populations built into the allocation of political power, most notably in their number of United States Representatives and also the Electoral College for selecting the president.
The business community sees population decline as a negative in terms of its impact on the workforce. A lower population will translate to fewer workers, especially in jobs seen as low skilled, low paying, tedious, dirty, or dangerous. America has historically encouraged immigration to work jobs that many Americans have increasingly shied away from. Traditionally, nations seek population growth to increase the unskilled labor pool and have a larger population from which to draw soldiers in times of war.
All this said, the advance of technology, allied with the positive human drive toward both profit and productivity, provides a way forward into a new era. According to the website Earth . org, by 2100 only 12 nations will have growth rates above 2.1 per woman, considered by most experts the minimum level to replace population levels.
Japan has seen its birth rate drop to under 1.4 births per woman, well below the rate of population replacement. Immigration serves as no solution in a country whose culture has for centuries resisted the moving in of newcomers. Its more rigorous and disciplined society also tends to not appear as attractive as other Western and Westernized nations.
Yet its economy continues to develop and grow while Japan remains an important force in both the global economy and the United States system of military alliances.
And using immigration to fill those gaps only appears to be a path of least resistance, but has historically led to expanding, costly, and sometimes bloody organized crime and corruption. Moreover, immigration from the non-industrialized to the Western world deprives countries that struggle the most of the people they need the most. Mass migration of these people to the United States and Europe sinks Third World nations deeper into severe problems while only providing to the West the benefit of cheap labor and cultural touchpoints.
Population decline has led Japan to two strategies: quality over quantity and also “robotization” beyond that of almost any other nation.
“Quality over quantity” means getting more out of each individual for longer. Japan has forged ahead in both policy and culture in moving the age of retirement to later and later in life. Companies are encouraged, and also find it productive, to adapt roles as workers get older. Keeping those with skills and experience on the job longer while also reducing burden and stresses, helps keep many on the job well into their 70s in Japan.
Companies also increasingly see human labor as a limited resource problem to be met with innovation and creativity. Research and development by Japanese companies focuses more and more on supplementing fewer human workers with more technological supports.
Additionally, Japan has (unsurprisingly) led the world in advancing machine learning, artificial intelligence, and robotics into the workplace. The International Federation of Robotics reported in 2023 that Japan had a “record 435,299 industrial robots working in . . . factories.” The country has enjoyed a solid, if not spectacular, rate of Gross Domestic Product growth at just over 1.1 percent in 2025.
Japan has also embarked on “natalist” policies that increase supports for working families with children, especially in providing childbirth “bonuses” of approximately $3,000 a piece, medical care for children with disabilities, and other support structures. The government has also encouraged companies to adopt more family-friendly policies that incorporate the needs of families with children as a priority.
A number of nations, not just Japan, but also several in Europe, continue to see economic expansion as the population declines. This seems to indicate that recognizing the reality of a drop in population, then executing a smooth transition into a post growth economy can not only cushion the blow of fewer people, but also provide opportunities for innovators and entrepreneurs.
The story of Japan should inspire those in the Mountain State. West Virginia has seen a flat population for decades as surrounding states grew in numbers. That said, the state economy has grown both slowly and steadily despite years of no population growth or decline and dropping workforce participation.
West Virginia has the ability to adapt to a world of population decline because the state has wrestled with these issues for decades and has made a virtue out of the necessity of “do more with less.” It is doubtful that even if the state’s population expands as a whole that adding people would help more than a handful of counties, outside of higher tax revenues, of course.
The strategy should lie first in educating West Virginians for West Virginia from pre school to higher education. Prioritize fields of necessity, especially in education, by promoting what West Virginia needs. This includes all of the trades, local government administration, health care, home and commercial contracting, business management, small scale independent manufacturing, truck driving, and more.
West Virginia officials have expanded on the international quality over quantity ideal already in one important way, by following Governor Patrick Morrisey’s lead in encouraging workforce growth through motivating people to embrace and live healthier lifestyles. Morrisey has plainly stated that a healthier workforce produces more, has better attendance, and develops faster than one burdened with chronic conditions. Promoting state health has the desired outcome of producing more workers from stagnant or shrinking populations.
Economic sectors that have driven the state economy, but are hurt by the shrinking workforce, can certainly supplement with technology as Japan has. Additionally, high generators of tax revenues that do not draw significantly from a small workforce needed elsewhere, such as datacenters, are critical game changers to counties that have a small workforce, low economic activity, and little means to attract new workers.
Often, economic plans to develop West Virginia accept the idea that as development expands, it will pull population from other states in. A half-century ago West Virginia’s lack of population growth was an outlier in the world. Now it is commonplace in almost every industrialized realm.
State officials, if they have not done so already, might benefit from looking at stagnancy or loss as inevitable in the current environment, and then structure and plan accordingly. If seen as an opportunity and a potential benefit, West Virginia could emerge as a real winner in this changing world.
